Trump’s Guillotine: What Lies Ahead for South Africa

While hope persists, a deafening silence prevails. Neither the US government, where some exporters – including from the citrus sector – have submitted trade proposals, nor the South African government is providing clear indications of whether a more favorable trade deal will be signed.

Industry associations representing citrus, wine, and table grapes have stated to African Farming that the economic impacts could be “devastating.”

Impact on the Wine and Grape Industry

Christo Conradie, Manager for Stakeholder Engagement and Policy at South Africa Wine, explained that the increased import tariff would have profound ramifications on the sustainability of wine exports to the US and would cause tensions along the entire value chain.

He emphasizes that the US market is crucial for the South African wine industry – around 660 million Rand worth of wine is exported to the United States annually.

A 30% import tariff is expected to result in a significant decline in export volumes, as South African wine becomes less competitive in an already fiercely contested market.

This loss will have far-reaching repercussions – from reduced revenues for producers and exporters to smaller operations and potential layoffs, especially in rural areas where viticulture serves as a vital source of employment.

The South African Table Grape Industry (SATI) also expresses deep concern over the 30% import duties. The US is regarded as an important emerging market for South African table grapes, having established a reliable supply over two decades outside of the season.

Due to the 30% tariff, South African grapes will no longer be competitive in the US market. This could worsen if competitors in the Southern Hemisphere – such as Peru and Chile – benefit from lower tariffs.

SATI fears that the tariff could hinder the industry’s progress in expanding exports to the US – a central part of SATI’s diversification strategy.

While only 3% of South African table grapes currently go to the US, this volume has grown at an average annual rate of 20% from the 2020/21 season to the 2024/25 season.

In the 2024/25 season, 2.2 million 4.5-kg cartons (approximately 9,900 tons) of table grapes valued at around 360 million Rand were exported to the US. The gross production value in the previous year amounted to 15 billion Rand.

In addition to the significant contribution of the industry to the local economy, it creates nearly 105,000 jobs with an annual value of 3.83 billion Rand. The higher US import tariffs threaten these jobs.

US Consumers Will Pay the Price

A 30% tariff on South African table grapes would mean US consumers face nearly double the average price – about $44 for an 8.2 kg box.

Alex Whyte from Macadamias SA (SAMAC) market access and development committee also believes that ultimately, US consumers will bear the costs of tariffs imposed by Trump.

Next to China, the United States remains the largest market for South African macadamias and shelled nuts. The nut industry recently received mixed news.

While China announced in June that it would impose no further tariffs on macadamia imports from South Africa starting next year – which should boost demand and improve competitiveness – the US announced additional tariffs.

The Government Doesn’t Care

The deafening silence following the South African government’s visit to the US in May this year gives the impression that little progress has been made in negotiations between the two countries.

Terry Gale, Chairman of Exporters Western Cape (EWC), stated that exporters are particularly concerned about the current uncertainty in trade with the US.

The EWC continues to hope that South African businesses can collaborate and present a trade proposal that meets the requirements of President Trump to avert a crisis.

Gale explained that some members of his organization from the agricultural sector, particularly the citrus industry, have raised their concerns with the US, but thus far without success.

African Farming inquired with the Department of Trade, Industry, and Competition about the status of negotiations between South Africa and the US. Spokesperson Phumzile Kotane stated that feedback would be provided as new information becomes available.

Citrus Industry

Thousands of jobs in the citrus sector are at risk. Entire towns in the Western and Northern Cape provinces, dependent on the US market, could be devastated before new markets are developed.

Dr. Boitshoko Ntshabele, Managing Director of the Citrus Growers’ Association of Southern Africa (CGA), states that approximately 7 million 15-kg cartons of citrus fruits valued at 1.9 billion US dollars are exported to the US annually.

“The increased import tariff will render our citrus products uncompetitive in the US market and will deal a devastating blow to small towns in the Western and Northern Cape. These provinces export exclusively to the US.”

Exports to the United States secure around 35,000 local jobs there. It is estimated that four to five people depend on the income of one job – meaning the lives of approximately 140,000 to 175,000 people will be affected.

Ntshabele explained that it is not easy to redirect citrus products, as they are grown according to the specific requirements of each market – including specific plant protection regulations.

Even if producers manage to redirect some of the products, this could lead to oversupply in other markets – resulting in falling prices. This would impact the entire South African citrus industry.

Should the increased US import tariffs indeed be confirmed, the CGA hopes the government will take all possible measures to improve access to other markets.

There are numerous markets in Asia where local producers could benefit in the future. However, access to these markets must be improved through trade agreements, lower tariffs, and adjusted plant protection protocols – and that takes time, which is currently in short supply.

The industry plans to increase its citrus production by 100,000 cartons in the coming years and is actively seeking new export markets.